Agamali Mamedov

Agamali Mamedov

(the director of chair of sSociology of communications of Sociological Faculty of Moscow State University)

We must admit that the Western coalition won a military victory in Libya. But in my opinion, this military victory turned into a grand political and other losses. It seems to me that they fell into the same trap, in which the Soviet Union got caught in Afghanistan in 1980s. Yes, they won a military victory. But it was the first time since Yugoslavia when throughout the world they demonstrated their dominance not only de jure but de facto. Thus, now there is no international law, there are no guarantees of security, there is no sovereignty, that is, any state can be attacked by another state, that has more military forces, and nor international nor any other organizations can guarantee of such an attack. Will Libya be a one united state as before, or will it split into three parts? That’s a great question. Now, second. There is a rise of Islamic fundamentalism. Those sects and tarrikates, that now operate in Libya, are quite rigid, and Gaddafi’s authoritarian government system allowed to keep them in frames of legal submission. How it will be now is hard to say. After all, Gaddafi has formed his own system of Eastern co-prosperity, that is Libya, followed by Chad, by Mali, by Niger, and this is also a question – what the situation in these countries will be. And then a domino effect takes place. It is not clear, why youth in Libya is allowed to do such things, and why the youth in Oman, or Qatar is not allowed to. I think that new serious repartition of the world is coming. That repartition, which was talked of in 1980s, is coming. The scheme of world order, that was established in Yalta, doesn’t fit the modern realities, nor social nor political. The repartition will come, and unfortunately, it will be tragic for many countries.